In 2018, a word was circulated on the Internet: "This year is the most difficult year and the best year for the next 10 years." This language has cut the pain in many industries. In the author's view, although the machine tool industry is not so pessimistic, in 2018 there is still a lack of virtuous volatility to boost morale. For most machine tool companies, the worry is more than happy, and many people in the industry are also confused about the future direction of the industry.

 

As the most important industry organization in China's machine tool industry, China Machine Tool Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “Machine Tool Association”) has played a good guiding, propaganda and service role for a long time. Its tracking, summarization and pre-judging of the industry are all in the industry. The focus of attention. On January 16, 2019, with the opportunity of the annual New Year Media Symposium of the Machine Tool Association, the leaders of the association introduced the industry to the media. Chairman of the Machine Tool Association, Mao Yufeng, Secretary General Wang Liming, Executive Vice President Guo Changcheng, Chairman of the Board of Directors Wang Xu, and Director of the Media Department Zhang Fangli attended the meeting. Media leaders such as Machine Tool Magazine, Economic Reference, and Economic Daily were invited to participate.

 

New century, new era, thousands of changes

 

Since the outbreak of the 2009 financial crisis, it has been 10 years since then, and many changes have taken place in various fields. For the machine tool industry, this 10-year journey is not easy. In order to let everyone understand the development of China's machine tool industry in the new era, the executive vice chairman of Mao Yufeng combed the development of China's machine tool industry in 2001-2018.

 

(1) The number of enterprises above the industrial scale continues to grow. From 2,055 in 2001 to 5,643 in November 2018, the increase is not much. Among them, the number of enterprises above designated size in the machine tool industry changed little from 2001 to 2006, and the growth rate in 2007 was as high as 78.5%. Since then, it has maintained a relatively steady and slow growth state, taking into account the adjustment of the standardization of enterprises above designated size (Note: since 2010, The division standard of enterprises above designated size has been adjusted from the annual main business income of more than 5 million yuan to more than 20 million yuan. The number of enterprises above the machine tool scale has not been significantly reduced due to external factors such as the financial crisis.

 

(2) The consumption of metal processing machine tools has risen and fallen. In 2011, the consumption of metal processing machine tools reached the peak of 39.09 billion US dollars. Since then, it has declined year by year until about 9% in 2017. It is expected to grow in 2018, but the growth rate has dropped. Among them, the trend of gold cutting machine tools and forming machine tools is different. The change in the consumption of metal cutting machine tools is basically the same as the overall change of metal processing machine tools, and the consumption of forming machine tools has declined slightly in 2009, and has been growing slowly since then.

 

(3) The heat of import and export of machine tools is not reduced. In 2001, the total import and export of machine tools reached US$4.2 billion, reaching US$26.9 billion in 2017. Except for the significant decline in the total volume of imports and exports in 2009, other years are basically in a state of growth. Overall, the import and export of machine tools has been in a trade deficit state. In 2011, the difference was the largest, and then the inverse difference gradually decreased. However, the measuring tools and abrasives maintain a trade surplus, which is related to the export of medium and low-end measuring tools and abrasives in China.

 

Looking back at the development process of China's machine tool industry in the new century, it can be roughly divided into high-speed growth period and industrial adjustment period. Overall, product upgrades and technological advances have had significant results. However, compared with the international machine tool powerhouse, although the gap is gradually narrowing, it is still quite obvious.

 

Looking back, 2018, high and low

 

For the operation of the industry in 2018, the executive vice president of Mao Yufeng conducted a comparative analysis of the data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the key contact enterprise data of the Machine Tool Association. There are many differences in the composition of the two. Among them, the proportion of 5643 enterprises above designated size involved in the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics is 33% for abrasives, 13% for gold cutting machines, 12% for tools, and 10% for forming machines; The ratio is: 54% for gold cutting machine, 14% for measuring tool, 11% for forming machine, and 6% for abrasive grinding.

 

(1) In 2018, the main business income of the industry was high and low. From January to November 2018, the main business income of the whole industry was 667.64 billion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year; among them, the gold cutting machine tool was 112.74 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year; the metal forming machine tool was 74.91 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year; the measuring tool 828.3 100 million yuan, an increase of 6.8%.

 

(2) The total profit of the industry in 2018 is higher than that of the previous year. From January to November 2018, the total profit of the whole industry was 42.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. Among them, the total profit of metal cutting machine tools was 4.99 billion yuan, up 28.8% year-on-year; the total profit of metal forming machine tools was 5.24 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year; the total profit of construction tools was 7.65 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year.

 

(3) The output of metal processing machine tools decreased year-on-year. From January to November 2018, the total output of metal processing machine tools was 662,000 units, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year. Among them, the output of gold cutting machine tools was 448,000 units, an increase of 0.37% year-on-year; the output of metal forming machine tools was 214,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%.

 

(4) The proportion of loss-making enterprises has gradually decreased. From January to November 2018, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed that the loss-making enterprises in the machine tool industry accounted for 13.5%, and the key enterprise data was 30.3%. The data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the key enterprises in the key enterprises have the same trend, which are higher at the beginning of the year and then steadily lower.

 

(5) The inventory of finished products of the whole industry decreased year-on-year. From January to November 2018, the stocks of finished products of key contact enterprises were 10%-20% lower than the previous year.

 

(6) Gold cutting machine orders are worrying. From January to November 2018, new orders for metalworking machine tools decreased by 18.0% year-on-year, and orders for orders increased by 1.4% year-on-year. In contrast, orders for gold cutting machines are even worse.

 

The industry-wide statistics for the whole year of 2018 have not yet been announced. According to the industry situation of the previous high and low, the Machine Tool Association predicts that the main business income and total profit in 2018 may be the same as the previous year or have a small increase.

 

To sum up, in 2018, the machine tool industry has four characteristics: the industry is generally stable, the growth rate is high and then low; the product structure continues this year's upgrade trend; the order situation is not optimistic; the industry business conditions continue to differentiate.

 

Welcome to the present, 2019, seek new changes

 

For the 2019 that has arrived, the expectations of the company are different. Among the domestic enterprises, enterprises with better management hold the money and wait and do not dare to invest in expansion; enterprises with poor business experience feel that the situation is more severe than in 2018. For foreign-funded enterprises, it also changed the high-profile attitude of all the last year's rise, turning to half of the company's optimistic, half of the company's conservative state. The side shows that in 2019, China's machine tool market is unlikely to have a significant recovery.

 

At the beginning of 2019, China General Technology Group strategically reorganized Shenyang Machine Tool Group, Dalian Machine Tool Group will also be included in China General Technology Group, a series of big moves caused great concern in the industry. Whether the merger and reorganization of large enterprises in the machine tool industry can bring new vitality and vitality to the industry and enterprises, it remains to be seen.

 

Mao Yufeng, executive vice chairman, said that 2019 is a special year, and the differentiation in the industry's subdivisions will become more apparent. For the machine tool industry in 2019, favorable factors include the effective development of a series of national growth policies, the steady growth of the domestic economy, and the country's efforts to improve the business environment of enterprises; support policies will be implemented one after another; industry transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment Going deeper. However, the unfavorable factors should not be underestimated. First, there are many uncertainties in external instability, such as the weakening of the world economy and trade growth momentum, the turmoil in the international financial market, the difficulty in grasping the Sino-US economic and trade frictions, and the weakening demand. . The problems and contradictions accumulated in the industry for many years are still plaguing some enterprises, such as the unsatisfactory institutional mechanism, large-scale loans formed by large-scale new construction and technological transformation during the period of strong market demand, resulting in serious burden of repayment and interest, and product structure cannot Adapt to changes in market demand and other factors.

 

On the whole, although the development of the machine tool industry in 2019 is not optimistic, it will be relatively stable. In general, it will maintain a medium-to-low-speed development trend. The main business income will be flat or slightly fluctuating in 2018, and the performance of each segment will be different. more obvious. For a single company, in 2019, it still needs to work hard and at the same time seek new changes.